IMF pegs India's growth at 7.9%

In the backdrop of the global financial turmoil, IMF on Wednesday projected that Indian economic growth rate would slip to 7.9% in 2008 from 9.2% in the previous year.

In 2009, the Indian economy will expand at slightly higher rate of 8%, stated IMF's World Economic Outlook, released here. The report further said weak export demand and higher financing costs will dampen the growth of private investment, the key driver of growth. The impact of global financial turmoil following US sub-prime crisis, the cost of which is estimated at $1 trillion by the IMF, will be less in case of emerging economies in the East as compared to developed nations.

Growth in consumer prices, which has been rising alarmingly in the recent past, in India is expected to moderate to 5.2% in 2008 and 4% in 2009. It was 6.4% in 2007. IMF growth projections for India are in line with other think tanks, including the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council that expected the economic growth rate to moderate to 8.5% during 2008-09 against projections of 8.7% for the previous fiscal. IMF also projected slowdown in growth rate in emerging Asia to 7.5% in 2008 from a high of 9.1% in the previous year. In case of China, the GDP growth rate is expected to slip to 9.3% from 11.4% in 2007.

China and India led economic expansion in Asia, but growth in the region could be hit if the global financial crisis persists, the International Monetary Fund has said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). "Growth in emerging Asia remained exceptionally rapid in the first half of 2007. The regional expansion was led by China, where real GDP grew by 11.5% in first half of 2007 as exports and investment accelerated, and by India, where gains in domestic demand, particularly investment, underpinned 9.25% (year on year) growth in the first half (of 2007)," the WEO says.

With the economies of East and South East Asia also poised to record strong growth rates, the IMF has predicted that the regional economy is now expected to expand by 9.2% in 2007 and 8.3% in 2008.

It noted that emerging Asia, has, among other things, successfully managed strong foreign exchange inflows, but that China would grow by a slower 10% in 2008 compared to 11.5% in 2007.

The Indian economy is expected to expand by 8.4% in 2008 against 8.9% in 2007, the IMF has said ahead of the spring meetings of the bank and the Fund this weekend. "Slower demand for Asian exports, and electronic goods in particular, and the possibility of further global financial market turbulence are particular downside concerns," the Fund has said.


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